Julia Harnden presents a clear analysis of the education landscape, the key risks facing the sector, and the transformative potential of a funding settlement that truly reflects the value of education.

Tomorrow’s rewards require investment today

As we approach the autumn budget in November, education leaders across the country are acutely aware that this is a defining moment. The Spending Review 2025 provided a framework for funding over the next three or four years, but it left critical gaps hat must be addressed if we are secure a sustainable future or our schools and colleges. 

The budget presents an opportunity for the Chancellor respond to the evidence, to listen to the profession, and invest in the future of our children and young people.

A severely strained system 

While the headline figures from the recent Spending Review (tinyurl.com/5fd6bkbs) suggest a welcome uplift in education funding, with total revenue set to rise from £94.1 billion in 2025/26 to billion by 2028/29, the reality on the ground tells a far more sobering story. 

Dig a little deeper, and the numbers reveal that the average annual real-terms growth for the core schools budget stands at a modest 0.4%. Per-pupil funding will increase by just 0.9% per year in real terms excluding the additional funding for expanded free school meals eligibility. 

As it stands, there's still no clarity on what funding will look like at school or college level for the 2026/27 financial year. However, insights from our latest member survey paint a concerning picture. Fewer than 3.5% of respondents felt they had received adequate funding over the past year, and the consequences are stark: 

• 71% have been forced to increase class sizes. 
• 49% have had to cut back on their curriculum offer. 
• 67% have reduced academic support for students. 
• 60% reported operating an in-year deficit.

These aren't just numbers; they're daily realities for schools and colleges already stretched to breaking point. Leaders are being pushed into making decisions that directly impact educational quality, staff wellbeing, and student outcomes. 

The message is clear: the upcoming budget must go further. Warm words and broad brushstrokes won't be enough. Targeted, sustained investment is essential to ensure that schools and colleges can not only stay afloat, but truly thrive.  

Credit where credit is due

The extension of free school meals to all families  receiving Universal Credit is hugely welcome and something we've long championed. It will help to ease the financial burden on thousands of struggling households and ensure that more children receive a nutritious hot meal each day. The benefits go far beyond the dinner table: well-fed children are better equipped to focus, engage, and learn in the classroom. 

This is a meaningful step towards addressing child poverty and educational inequality, but it must be seen as the beginning, not the end, of a much wider effort. There is still far more to be done.

SEND provision: a system on the brink

The SEND system is under intense strain. Despite increased high-needs funding, demand continues to outstrip supply, and the current funding framework is struggling to meet the diverse needs of learners.

Local authority high-needs deficits are projected to hit £8 billion by 2027/28 (tinyurl.com/2w3j5je3), limiting frontline support and driving reforms based on cost rather than pupil need. 

While we welcome the focus on SEND reform, the next phase must prioritise funding transparency and genuine collaboration across schools, colleges, families, health, and local authorities. An inclusive system should be driven by best practice and not financial pressure.

Post-16 education

Further education and sixth forms remain underfunded and undervalued. Despite their critical role in delivering technical skills and supporting disadvantaged learners, funding per student is still below 2010 levels, 11% lower for colleges and 23% lower for school sixth forms. More than 35% of colleges are in deficit, and college teachers earn 18% less than their school counterparts. The level of strategic investment in this sector is at odds with the government's economic and social mobility missions, and, without it, we risk failing a generation of learners. (See figures here: tinyurl.com/mw6d53n9)

Rebuilding the foundations

The condition of the education estate is deteriorating. The National Audit Office estimates that £13.8 billion is needed to address the maintenance backlog (tinyurl.com/fnmbcrpz). Yet capital funding remains constrained, and many schools and colleges are unable to access sufficient resources. 

We remain unconvinced that the government's planned capital expenditure on the school and college estate goes far enough or fast enough. All school and college buildings should be safe, comfortable environments. Yet our funding survey findings indicate that: 

• 73% of schools have classrooms needing refurbishment. 
• 56% have sports facilities that require replacement or refurbishment.
• 79% don't have access to the capital funding they need to pay for repairs and maintenance.

What improved funding could deliver

The autumn budget is not just a fiscal event; it is a chance to reset the trajectory of the education system. Improved funding would enable:

• Equity and inclusion: Introducing a process of auto-enrolment for all families eligible for free school meals could improve attendance, concentration, and outcomes. A 16-19 premium would support disadvantaged learners and close attainment gaps. 
• Stability in SEND: Eradicating deficits would allow local authorities to invest in services rather than debt. Uplifting commissioned place funding would restore predictability and sustainability. 
• Workforce capacity: Schools and colleges could retain staff, reduce workload, and invest in professional development. FE colleges could close the pay gap and attract more skilled educators. 
• Improved learning environments: Strategic capital investment would replace unsafe buildings, upgrade facilities, and expand provision. Well-maintained environments support staff wellbeing and student engagement.
• Long-term planning: A sustainable funding model would allow leaders to plan, innovate, and respond to emerging challenges. These are not extravagant demands. They are essential investments in the future of our children and young people.

Leadership and action

The autumn budget is our opportunity to secure the funding we need to build a system that is fair, resilient, and ambitious, and so, the time to act is now. 

Education is the cornerstone of national prosperity, social cohesion, and individual opportunity. Yet, the current funding landscape is treacherous, marked by shortfalls, inefficiencies, and unmet needs. Education leaders are already doing everything they can to deliver high-quality provision in challenging circumstances. But we cannot continue to do more with less. The budget offers an opportunity to put things right. 

The Chancellor must seize this moment, not with half-measures, but with a bold and strategic vision for education. The future of millions of children and young people depends on it.

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The message is clear: the upcoming budget must go further. Warm words and broad brushstrokes won't be enough. Targeted, sustained investment is essential to ensure that schools and colleges can not only stay afloat, but truly thrive.

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ASCL FUNDING SURVEY:

Read the full summary of results from our funding survey of ASCL members here www.ascl.org.uk/FundingSurvey

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Julia Harnden
ASCL Deputy Director of Policy
@julia-harnden.bsky.social

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